Polls vs. Us

Worried about the polls? Well, before I explain why not to be, here's a quick primer on polling:

Let's say there's a poll of 11 people to see whether the color blue is generally better liked than the color red. If you have 5 people in the room who always like blue better than red, and you have 4 people in the room who always like red better than blue, and 2 people that cant seem to make up their mind, than you have to fudge the numbers to reflect the way those people's tastes are.

It's the same in a political poll. If a higher percentage of voters usually vote democratic, than the numbers must be able to reflect the actual make-up of the American population.

The Problem: Because the numbers do have to be manipulated in this way, and most people don't know how the math is actually done, often a poll can be manipulated by simply changing the demographic numbers that are imputed into the raw data. Also, even if the current demographics are imputed correctly, those are not necessarily the demographics that are actually going to show up to vote.

The Point: Polls are not exactly trustworthy, as they often are based on a person's perception of how the demographics are actually going to be ON ELECTION DAY.

With that said, here's a BIG encouragement that you can change the reality of the demographics on election day:




So, GO VOTE PEOPLE!!! This race is so much closer than you will ever hear in the media. They want you to think that it is all sewn up for Obama... if you believe that, look at this: a bi-partisan poll that is widely accepted in the political realm (not that you'll hear about it anyplace but on Rush Limbaugh). This poll puts us at a one point race in battleground states (they're calling them swing states this year, but anyhow).

Get out, pray for this tight election, and be strong!