Federal Friday: Polls vs. Election Reputation

I know it's Wednesday, but since I will be campaigning from either Thursday night or Friday through Tuesday of next week, I have to put up this week's Federal Friday rather early. (Besides, there's something I want to write about)

The Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll released today puts us at a 3 point race: Obama 50% McCain 47%. This is a large improvement for McCain. As the report explains,

"Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days..."

This poll also has some other interesting numbers, including:

-One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided
-Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45%
-As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%
-Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided

Why this sudden change? Rush has been saying for the last two months that the polls would tighten as we got closer to the election. Interpretation: the pollsters must hedge their bets. Remember in the Bush/Kerry race? They had practically called the election for Kerry by noon (citing poll numbers that had been played with) trying to get the remaining republicans from 'bothering' to go vote. Then, Bush won. All the pollsters looked like fools... and they don't want that to happen again. So, since you can't prove by actual vote counting what actually happened in the weeks leading up to an election, but you can certainly prove what happened just before and during the election, they're straightening out their act.

And to further ensure that their reputation doesn't get further tarnished, this was included in the Rasmussen report:

"It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers
reflect a lasting change or statistical noise."

Now, I really can't blame them for further hedging their bets, but I do think it helps prove the point.

Conclusion: This race is terribly tight, and every little bit of volunteering, and certainly every vote will, does, and must count!

(Also see Polls vs. Us, and particularly the Stoplight video included)