Federal Friday: Polls vs. Election Reputation

I know it's Wednesday, but since I will be campaigning from either Thursday night or Friday through Tuesday of next week, I have to put up this week's Federal Friday rather early. (Besides, there's something I want to write about)

The Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll released today puts us at a 3 point race: Obama 50% McCain 47%. This is a large improvement for McCain. As the report explains,

"Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days..."

This poll also has some other interesting numbers, including:

-One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided
-Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45%
-As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%
-Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided

Why this sudden change? Rush has been saying for the last two months that the polls would tighten as we got closer to the election. Interpretation: the pollsters must hedge their bets. Remember in the Bush/Kerry race? They had practically called the election for Kerry by noon (citing poll numbers that had been played with) trying to get the remaining republicans from 'bothering' to go vote. Then, Bush won. All the pollsters looked like fools... and they don't want that to happen again. So, since you can't prove by actual vote counting what actually happened in the weeks leading up to an election, but you can certainly prove what happened just before and during the election, they're straightening out their act.

And to further ensure that their reputation doesn't get further tarnished, this was included in the Rasmussen report:

"It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers
reflect a lasting change or statistical noise."

Now, I really can't blame them for further hedging their bets, but I do think it helps prove the point.

Conclusion: This race is terribly tight, and every little bit of volunteering, and certainly every vote will, does, and must count!

(Also see Polls vs. Us, and particularly the Stoplight video included)

A Letter from Dutch Sheets

I received this via an email loop. This really brings into perspective how all Christians can be involved, even if you aren't a "boot on the ground" so-to-speak actively campaigning.

For those not familiar with Dutch Sheets, (I must admit that I've never heard of him, but I like this letter) go HERE.


Letter from Dutch Sheets

Due to IRS rules, this letter is from me personally and is not from any f the ministries I am associated with. (Also because of IRS rules, I cannot send it to my ministry database and therefore need your help in getting it out.) Do with it as you see fit, but my desire is that you forward it to as many praying friends as possible.

October 20, 2008
Dear Praying Friend,

In 2000, I wrote the 2nd most important letter of my life—a call to prayer for the elections of that year. I'm now writing what may be my most important letter. I knew the importance of those elections in 2000 was beyond any in my life up to that point and that the spiritual warfare surrounding them would be unlike anything any of us had ever seen. That letter was read by millions of people and I believe millions of them responded by praying. I also believe the prayers turned the tide.

You may question whether President Bush was the right choice; obviously, he has made some blunders in his tenure as president. But two of his decisions alone left no doubt he was God's choice: Roberts and Alito. These two Supreme Court Justices have proven critical in the process of breaking the hold of humanism, death and anti-God agendas that have ruled the Court for 50 years. I assure you that more devastation—the shedding of innocent blood, immorality, decay of the family and an erosion of our godly heritage—has flowed into our nation through that institution than any other door in America. Many times more. The poison allowed into America through their decisions is beyond any of our abilities to articulate.

The reality in America is that you don't need to control Congress or the White House to rule the nation. You only need 5 people – 5 out of 9 on the Supreme Court. And for decades those who disagree with just about everything you and I stand for have been in control! In Bush's two terms, the process of turning this around began with the appointments of Roberts and Alito. Now, we win some cases 5-4 and lose some 4-5. (We barely outlawed partial birth abortion. The vote of onejudge saved thousands of babies from this horror.) We need one more conservative Justice for a consistent majority, then more to build a strong majority.

In Obama's own words, "the next president will appoint at least one, perhaps two or more Supreme Court Justices." He's right. Almost certainly two or more older, liberal Justices are waiting until after the elections to retire, in hopes of Obama winning and appointing more liberals to replace them. And he certainly would. He voted against the confirmation of Roberts and Alito. So did Biden. And Biden led the fight against Justice Thomas several years back, another of the 4 solid conservatives. Make no mistake about it, the two of them do have a litmus test for Supreme Court Justices, and a major part of that test is Roe vs. Wade. McCain and Palin, on the other hand, both have very strong pro-life positions. This alone makes the choice for President simple. To vote for the 2nd and 3rd most liberal Senators (Obama and Biden), both of whom are firmly and blatantly pro-abortion, would be unconscionable. Obama has actually said that if he wins, he would like his first action as president to be the signing of the Freedom of Choice Act, which would eliminate every other law against any aspect of abortion (partial birth abortion, parental notification, etc., etc.). And with a democratic majority in the House and Senate, pretty much any legislation he and Biden want to pass will be a slam-dunk. There are many other unrighteous positions they hold but this position alone makes the choice easy. If they win this election, it will set America back decades in the cause of life and the restoration we seek.

Just as many of you do, I too, want to see a first black President, but not Senator Obama. To allow that noble and godly desire, the economy or one's position on the war to trump this issue of life and death for the innocent unborn is simply wrong. The scriptures teach that if we choose first to exalt righteousness and turn from evil, God promises to heal our land (see Proverbs 14:34; 2 Chronicles 7:14). It is righteousness that exalts a nation, not wealth, prosperity or armies. If we will finish the process of removing the curses of death and anti-God laws off of America by electing a president that will continue to shift the Court, God will grace us with breakthrough in other areas such as the economy, the war against terrorism, etc. My faith is not in a person, and certainly not a political party, for the healing of America, but I know God's word and His ways well enough to know that our decisions do move Him to action or inaction.

Now to the heart of my reason for writing this letter (I realize I am "preaching to the choir"—most of you who know or listen to me are conservative enough to vote for McCain and Palin.) I have not written any appeals for prayer concerning this election because:

1) others have, and
2) I believe our movement has matured to the point that the prayer base of the Church is already praying.

But I now feel the need to raise my voice. I am appealing to you to pray for these elections the next two weeks like you've never prayed for any in the past.

Faithfully. Passionately. Boldly. Ask God for His mercy and grace.

We deserve His judgment for removing His influence and authority from our government, schools, homes and businesses; for the killing of 50 million babies; for leading the world in the consumption and exporting of pornography; for passing laws to reject His; etc. But mercy triumphs over judgment and in His wrath He remembers mercy. In 2000 we actually lost the popular vote and won the election—talk about grace! Please pray for this grace to be released again. But I am also asking you for something more than normal prayer. For those of you who understand spiritual warfare, I am asking you to also include this aspect of prayer. There is no doubt that we have entered a Daniel 10 moment in time: "Then he said to me, 'Do not be afraid, Daniel, for from the first day that you set your heart on understanding this and on humbling yourself before your God, your words were heard, I have come in response to your words. But the prince of the kingdom of Persia was withstanding me for twenty-one days; then behold, Michael, one of the chief princes, came to help me, for I had been left there with the kings of Persia'"(Daniel 10: 12-13 NAS). The spiritual warfare in this election is incredibly fierce, and just as it was in Daniel's day, is all about the restoration of a nation. And also like Daniel, we must keep praying until we win the battle in the heavens.

In August of this year I predicted that September would mark a shift in momentum for these elections. This happened with the appointment of Sarah Palin as the Vice Presidential nominee (who is a true Esther in our generation), but when the economy began its meltdown and the media ramped up their unprecedented attacks on Palin, that momentum wasn't sustained. But we can see it turn again if we approach this battle as the spiritual warfare it truly is and bind the evil forces involved (see Matthew 16:18-19). The reality is that this election can be the breakthrough we need to fully shift the Court (and ultimately our nation) or it will be an immeasurable setback that could take many years to reverse—if ever.

Please understand what I am saying: if we engage in this battle and do what I am asking—in mass—we will win; if we do not, we will lose. I, for one, don't intend to allow the latter. I am in Washington, D.C. now (October 20-22) with Lou Engle and a team of prayer leaders from around the nation to war for this election. Join us! Lose some sleep, miss some meals—pray! Pray like never before for these elections. And as you do, involve yourself not only in petitioning prayer but also in spiritual warfare. Use your God-given authority over the plans and strategies of satan's kingdom. Bind all witchcraft that is working to control the outcome, including occultic powers that are suppressing truth. Release Christ's Kingdom rule in every way the Holy Spirit leads you.

Don't be deceived and don't lose hope (if you have to, turn off the TV.) It is not too late to turn these elections. God is plenty powerful enough to do so. The real question is will we rise to the level of prayer and spiritual warfare necessary to release that power. And remember, we don't need a majority of Christians who are willing and able to do this—only a praying remnant. We can do it!

Here are some practical suggestions to consider:
1) Fast (a meal a day; a day a week; a Daniel fast; 3 days; 10 days;TV; etc.) and spend the time praying.
2) Agree in prayer with someone everyday for God's will to be done.
3) Form/participate in prayer groups regularly. Churches could prayeveryday.
4) Take time in every gathering to pray. (Take 15 minutes in everyservice to pray for the elections. Turn an entire service to harp andbowl style intercession—worship and prayer combined.)
5) Join 2 or more on a conference call and pray for 15, 20, or 30minutes.
6) Pray on the way to work (and on the way home).
7) Pray before you go to sleep.
8) Pray before church services.
9) Ask God to give you His strategy—He will!

In His grip,
Dutch Sheets

Federal Friday: One Vote to stop Democratic Halloweens

So, with all the serious political postings of late, I decided to provide some comedy relief. Now, personally, we don't celebrate halloween, but this cartoon is very funny - and representative of the liberal viewpoint - so it belongs in today's Federal Friday.

The poor kids... just trying to make their way in the world of candy gathering, and they get stripped of the fruits of their labors!

NO!! That is not what is happening! The Democrat is trying to take away the fruits of their labors. But, if we reach the analogy to our current situation, we see that the kids (voters, taxpayers) are able to decide whether or not the Democrat (Obama and other candidates) gets to do what he plans.

(Now, of course, I can't make it all fun and games, so here's the serious section)

With that in mind, remember, no matter what the media, politicians or others tell you, your vote will count! This video is a little longer than usual, and isn't a Stoplight, but is very good and well worth the time.

One last thing: the polls that aren't being manipulated are still showing either a 2 point race, or tighter! Make up that slight difference by showing up in greater numbers than anyone imagined possible!

Campaigning and Snow - An Excellent Combo!

So, the night before last, it snowed! We had about an inch of accumulation, although if it had all stuck it would have been much more. Then, last night, it snowed again for about an hour! (no accumulation, but we're so happy to actually be seeing snow when winter ought to be starting that we don't really care!)

We realized that the only one of us that had boots that fit was Buddy, so Birdie and I had to go and get some. Of course, we went to Walmart. But before we left, Birdie said something about the two of us maybe getting matching boots, and that if we did, she would succeed in getting me to wear "girlie" boots. Well... it just so happens that the opposite took place :-). The women's boots were all terribly un-functional (is that a word?). I had entered the store knowing that I was getting men's boots (women's shoes aren't fitting right these days, so I get small mens instead). Well, after about 10 minutes, Mom and Birdie come find me in section where all the heavy boots are. Here's the punch-line: Birdie ends up getting the same pair I got (in a smaller size) - matching boots, right? - and they are VERY not feminine at all!! I found it quite funny.

So, since I'll be working on one of the Gen-J SAT's (Student Action Teams) and we've already had snow, I am hoping and praying that God will give me two of my favorite things at once - a snowy campaign! I think that would be SO fun! I know a lot of people, including Dad, would disagree, but that's what I think.

Oh, and a number of people that we know from back east are coming to run some of the teams, which will be a blast!! (JL and DN in particular, and all the others!)

Oh, and if you all would pray for my health and particularly my energy level to hold up during the campaigning, I would really appreciate it (My knees could use some prayer too... make that my legs... make that all my joints). Everyone keep praying for all the campaigns all over the country, especially for McCain-Palin!

Polls vs. Us

Worried about the polls? Well, before I explain why not to be, here's a quick primer on polling:

Let's say there's a poll of 11 people to see whether the color blue is generally better liked than the color red. If you have 5 people in the room who always like blue better than red, and you have 4 people in the room who always like red better than blue, and 2 people that cant seem to make up their mind, than you have to fudge the numbers to reflect the way those people's tastes are.

It's the same in a political poll. If a higher percentage of voters usually vote democratic, than the numbers must be able to reflect the actual make-up of the American population.

The Problem: Because the numbers do have to be manipulated in this way, and most people don't know how the math is actually done, often a poll can be manipulated by simply changing the demographic numbers that are imputed into the raw data. Also, even if the current demographics are imputed correctly, those are not necessarily the demographics that are actually going to show up to vote.

The Point: Polls are not exactly trustworthy, as they often are based on a person's perception of how the demographics are actually going to be ON ELECTION DAY.

With that said, here's a BIG encouragement that you can change the reality of the demographics on election day:




So, GO VOTE PEOPLE!!! This race is so much closer than you will ever hear in the media. They want you to think that it is all sewn up for Obama... if you believe that, look at this: a bi-partisan poll that is widely accepted in the political realm (not that you'll hear about it anyplace but on Rush Limbaugh). This poll puts us at a one point race in battleground states (they're calling them swing states this year, but anyhow).

Get out, pray for this tight election, and be strong!

Federal Friday "Just ONE Reason!" = Abortion

A number of people have mentioned that they would like "just ONE reason" to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket. On my last Federal Friday post, I think I provided some good reasons NOT to vote for Obama, and thereby good reasons to vote for McCain-Palin. But, if you want a reason to vote for McCain-Palin for there own sakes, here is one:



I have had the opportunity to come into close contact with a number of Special Needs children and adults. It pains me when people try to marginalize them socially, but in particular when these wonderful human beings become the targets of infanticide disguised as "choice"... abortion. Sarah Palin in this video has voiced what people who believe in the preciousness of life, particularly that of Special Needs children, have been waiting to hear from a prominant public figure for years. This deserves GREAT applause.

Also, remeber that this is not simply an issue of aborting Special Needs Children, this is about ALL abortion, as in completely unlimited abortion.

So, in short, applaud Sarah Palin's views, and applaud Senator McCain for choosing someone with this much grit! This could be that ONE reason you need... it's certainly the only one I need.

Resting...

Thank you all so much for your prayers... we made it, and found out that it wasn't the transmission after all! With all the bustle going on, I lost what it actually was, but we fixed it.

We aren't back home yet. We're staying at Aunt Love-My-Dogs' house to visit and rest before heading home.

I've spent the last few days on the couch as much as possible, although I'm considering taking a walk this afternoon, perhaps. Can't wait to get back home... it's great to visit with fam, but those absolutely amazing mountains are calling.

Best be on to other things... have got a number of semi-pressing issues in the email box that I need to deal with.